A nominal amount is not purchasing power
A holder of one BTC still has one BTC a year later if no key is lost and nothing is spent. That says nothing about how much food, energy or euros it buys. Preserving units and preserving real value are different outcomes.
Real return compares a price change with inflation in a relevant basket and currency. Spread, fees, taxes and custody safety matter too. One successful decade cannot prove protection in every twelve-month interval.
Two different inflations
Bitcoin protocol inflation means growth in BTC units under its issuance schedule. Consumer inflation measures average price changes for a basket in euros or another currency. Lower BTC issuance cannot guarantee an immediate rate response to consumer-price news.
Liquidity, interest rates, leveraged positions and risk appetite may dominate short-run pricing. Bitcoin can therefore fall during high inflation or rise during low inflation.
What studies find
One descriptive study found a relationship between Bitcoin and expected inflation in its sample. Another paper studying surprises in inflation announcements found a negative short-run response and concluded that Bitcoin did not hedge inflation over that period.
The findings need not directly conflict: they use different periods, definitions and horizons. A hedge should capture a systematic relationship, not merely a long-run price rise. The honest conclusion is conditional, not that Bitcoin always beats inflation.
- state the currency and price basket
- state the beginning and end of the period
- separate long-run return from response to inflation surprises
A store of value carries several risks
Beyond exchange rate, assess key loss, custodian failure, regulatory restrictions and the date funds are needed. An asset can show a strong long-run result and remain unsuitable for a reserve due in three months.
Fixed supply clearly protects against dilution by BTC above network rules. Purchasing-power protection remains a market hypothesis. Diversifying reserves across different risks is a separate question from believing one narrative.