What can grow in a network
More people willing to receive BTC may improve payments; more venues may deepen liquidity; more developers and compatible wallets may lower the cost of use. Each of these networks has a different unit and quality of connection.
Headcount is not enough. A million inactive accounts may add less value than a smaller group that actually trades or transacts. Fees, poor usability and legal restrictions can also restrain network effects.
An address is not a person
One wallet can create a fresh address for each receipt, while an exchange can represent many customers behind one infrastructure. Batching puts several payments in one transaction; a custodian's internal transfer may not appear on-chain at all. Address count is not user count.
Active addresses, volume and transactions are reproducible measurements when defined, but they include change, self-transfers and service activity. Every indicator must be read with its limitations.
Price and adoption can affect each other
A higher price draws media, new buyers and service providers. Better access may then raise demand. A model that uses price as evidence of adoption and adoption to explain price can become circular.
Research applying a generalised Metcalfe model finds a possible relationship between network activity and valuation, while warning about imperfect user proxies, endogeneity and regime changes. It is not a physical law of price.
- one person can control many addresses
- one custodian can represent many people
- activity includes payments, self-transfers and technical operations
Monetisation is a process, not a finish line
Here monetisation means growing willingness to use a good to store, settle or quote value. It can advance in one country or group and retreat in another. There is no single global completion percentage.
A careful view combines liquidity, node distribution, on-chain and Lightning activity, custodial accounts, merchant acceptance and surveys. Even together they cannot guarantee future success; they only clarify what adoption means in a claim.